Agricultural Products

We believe processing margins will benefit in 2008 from improved end product pricing despite rising corn and soybean raw material prices and higher energy costs. We think raw material supplies will be ample in 2008, reflecting near-record corn and soybean supplies. We anticipate improved capacity utilization levels, on increased demand for corn used in the production of ethanol, increased exports of high fructose corn syrup to Mexico, and strengthening demand for soybean meal used as feed by farmers and in biofuels. Longer-term benefits we see for the sub-industry include increasing worldwide population, heightened global demand for proteins and grain-based crops, and continued industry consolidation and globalization of operations. While the U.S. market is relatively mature, we think future gains will come from developing Latin American and Asian countries. Processors are expected to continue to expand capacity in international markets through internal expansion, acquisitions, and joint ventures. Continued globalization should lead to improvement in sourcing raw materials and increased capabilities in meeting global demand. In addition, we think ongoing economic improvement within developing Asian countries will lead to increased demand for products worldwide.

Year to date through July 3, the S&P Agricultural Products Index declined 27.7%, compared to a 13.4% decline in the S&P 1500. We believe underperformance in 2008 reflects investors increased concerns that rising raw material prices may eventually pressure margins. In 2007, the S&P Agricultural Products Index increased 40.5%, versus a 3.6% gain for the S&P 1500. We believe outperformance in 2007 reflected margin benefits from strong global demand for agribusiness services and products, despite high energy costs and raw material prices. We think these stocks could continue to be pressured in 2008 as investors become more cautious over concerns about potential weakening end product pricing in 2009.

EU farmers planting more cereals, less biofuel

The EU statistical agency Eurostat said the amount of land planted with cereal crops such as wheat and barley is expected to grow by 5.7 percent from last year. Durum wheat -- used to make pasta -- will be planted on 12.6 percent more land than in 2007.

At the same time, farmers are planting fewer fields with rapeseed -- which is turned into biodiesel for cars -- with the amount of land under cultivation falling for the first time in five years. Rapeseed is Europe's fourth major crop by area after wheat, maize and barley.

Eurostat said the major changes in farming this year were "certainly a response to the very high producer price increases for cereals observed in 2007 and the beginning of 2008 due to an imbalance between supply and demand for cereals worldwide." European shoppers are paying some 10 percent more for bread and cereals than they were a year ago. Along with high energy prices, more costly food is pushing up inflation and eating into Europeans' spending power and the region's economic growth. Eurostat expects the EU cereal harvest to grow by a tenth this year, warning that its figures are likely to be revised. Unexpected rain or drought often sees final harvests differ hugely from forecasts. The amount of land used for protein crops -- half of them peas -- continues to shrink, it said, despite growing demand for the crops as animal feed. Farmers are also planting less sugar beet as the EU pulls away from funding European sugar production and allows more foreign sugar imports.

After massive alliances & investments in enzymes sectors it is time for pulp & paper industries

Stora Enso (pulp & paper company) has signed an agreement with Neste Oil to join forces to develop technology for producing new-generation biofuels from wood residues. Stora Enso is pioneering in developing its business in the new direction of producing biofuels for transportation. This will enable it to utilise its broad know-how and long experience in wood-based industries and wood sourcing in a new way to create business opportunities. The EUR 14 million demonstration plant will be integrated into the energy infrastructure of the Varkaus Mill, where the gas produced will equal the energy needed to heat 4 300 homes and cut carbon dioxide emissions significantly.

Massive investments in Ethanol Cellulosic R&D and moving from laboratory to real World

• SunOpta and GreenField Ethanol Create Cellulosic Ethanol
• BP announced $500 million over 10 years for Energy Biosciences Institute, Biobutanol partnership with DuPont
• SunOpta BioProcess Group is raising $30 million to fund exciting growth projects utilizing the Group's proprietary technology in the production of cellulosic ethanol
• Diversa and Celunol to merge to create Integrated Cellulosic Ethanol Company
• Shell invests $46 million in Iogen
• Diversa : 15 million shares to acquire the outstanding equity of Celunol, and up to $20 million in debt financing to fund its operations prior to closing
• Syngenta provide $16 M in R&D funding through 2009 to it partner Diversa

Scientists have been able to produce cellulosic ethanol from numerous feedstock sources in smaller pilot plants under nearly ideal conditions, the experts said. But making the technology work on a much larger scale, and thus making it a profitable enterprise, remains a key challenge, they said.

"Enzymes work really, really well at the pilot scale or the lab scale," said Jeff Passmore, executive vice president of Iogen Corporation, which plans to open a cellulosic ethanol plant in Idaho using barley straw as its main feedstock.

Agricultural commodities - Biofuels 'to push farm prices up'

A global switch from growing crops for food to growing them for biofuel production is boosting international prices paid for food, says a United Nations assessment of international farming trends. ``The switch to growing fuel crops will take land out of food production and increase the price of commodities,'' said the report, jointly prepared by the Food and Agriculture Organisation and the OECD.

The increasing use of grains such corn and wheat as feedstocks for the production of ethanol has led to an increase in food prices in the US. The International Grain Council reports that global output of grains is forecast to total 1660 M tonnes in 2007 (up from 1569 M tonnes in 2006) but that demand is expected to reach 1680 M tonnes. Since 2000, demand for corn for ethanol production in the US has tripled, with ethanol plants now consuming 20% of the US corn crop. A switch to biofuels to reduce oil consumption is being encouraged by the governments of 41 countries. As a result, demand for grain is expected to rise by 1.9%/y through 2017 compared with just 1.2%/y in the 1990s.

"Bioenergies have become a key factor in the functioning of agriculture markets," Loek Boonekamp, a senior OECD official.

"In the medium term we believe that they could lead to prices on international markets rising quite considerably, at higher levels than what we had predicted in former outlooks and above the average of the last 10 years."

Biofuels are gradually taking over as the main growth driver of agriculture demand. Goldman Sachs says that if government policies are adopted in full, global demand for biofuels could increase from 10bn gallons a year to 25bn gallons by 2010.

Goldman expects the trend rate of growth in demand for agricultural commodities to rise from 1.9 per cent a year between 1997 and 2006 to 2.6 per cent a year between 1996 and 2015.

U.S. President Bush Urges Congress to Mandate 35 Billion Gallon Alternative fuels by 2017

U.S. President George Bush asked Congress to pass legislation forcing by 2017 the replacement of about 35 billion gallons/year of U.S. gasoline with a variety of alternatives including ethanol and biodiesel.

If enacted, the so-called “Alternate Fuels Standard” (AFS) would represent about five times the current “renewable fuel standard” (RFS), which forces about 7.5 billion gallons of mostly corn-based ethanol into the U.S. gasoline pool. Biodiesel also qualifies under the current RFS, but ethanol in gasoline is usually the cheaper and easier route to refiner compliance with RFS mandates.

“The Alternative Fuel Standard will include sources such as corn ethanol, cellulosic ethanol, biodiesel, methanol, butanol, hydrogen, and alternative fuels,” the White House said in a summary of the new Bush plan.

“The increased standard will contain multiple safety valves. The EPA Administrator and the Secretaries of Agriculture and Energy will have authority to waive or modify the standard if they deem it necessary, and the new fuel standard will include an automatic safety valve to protect against unforeseen increases in the prices of alternative fuels or their feedstocks.”

What’s more, imported “alternative fuels” would be allowed under the AFS. “Importing alternative fuels also increases the diversity of fuel sources, which further increases our energy security,” the White House said.

In a related scheme, Bush will ask Congress to “reform and modernize” the current Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFÉ) standards for cars and light trucks. “In 2017, this will reduce projected annual gasoline use by up to 8.5 billion gallons, a further 5% reduction that, in combination with increasing the supply of renewable and alternative fuels, will bring the total reduction in projected annual gasoline use to 20%,” the White House said.

“These amounts are based on an assumption that on average, fuel efficiency standards for both light trucks and passenger cars are increased 4% per year, beginning in Model Year 2010 for cars and Model Year 2012 for light trucks. Given the changing nature of the marketplace for both cars and light trucks, the Secretary of Transportation will determine the actual standard and fuel savings in a flexible rulemaking process.” Bush also urged Congress to continue supporting fuel-efficient vehicle research. “We need to continue with important research into plug-in and advanced hybrid vehicles, and expand the use of high efficiency clean-diesel vehicles and biodiesel fuel. We must continue investing in new methods of producing ethanol and other biofuels,” he said.

EU targets greenhouse gas emissions cut of 20% by 2020

The Council also backed cuts in EU greenhouse gas emissions by 20% by 2020 from 1990 levels, and by 30% if other industrialized nations join in, and agreed to back collective cuts of 60% to 80% by 2050 compared with 1990 levels, German Chancellor Angela Merkel said in Brussels, chairing her first EU summit.

This target could cost the bloc up to 1.1 trillion euros, according to a new study by consulting group McKinsey & Co. The study, entitled "A cost curve for greenhouse gas reduction", was described in the Tuesday edition of Germany daily Die Welt.

"We expect, based on a well-balanced, sensible use of available environmental protection technologies, annual costs of between 60 and 80 billion euros out to the year 2020," the newspaper quoted McKinsey energy expert Thomas Vahlenkamp as saying.

European road map to reach 20% target for renewable energy by 2020

The European Union will have to move up a gear if it really wants to exploit the full energy potential of renewable sources, previous measures having been described as either inadequate or non-existent. The Commission's Energy Package of 10 January 2007 contains a road map to help member states achieve 20% of total energy production from renewable energy sources by 2020. European Commission unveiled new targets for including a minimum 10 percent biofuels within vehicle fuels by 2020.

That would result in total costs of between 800 billion to 1.1 trillion euros over the next 14 years.